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mokong
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 Subject: US Economy  Thu Nov 13, 2008 2:15 pm |
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Just to share here
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This is what I think will happen to the dollar, stocks and crude oil in the next two months.
November 13, 2008 · By Adam · Filed Under General
A plan to save the world — part two, or is it three?
When Paulson came out today and stated that his earlier plan to save the western world was not working, he offered up a plan “C” (or is it “D”) to relieve pressure on consumer credit, scrapping his earlier effort to buy the value mortgage assets.
No matter what happens or what the next plan is here, are the 3 reasons I believe stocks are headed lower.
* Number one: The trend in most all stocks is down. This trend is likely to persist and last longer than most people imagine.
* Number two: There is no plan. The government is floundering and does not have a plan that is going to work anytime soon.
* Number three: We have a lame-duck president, and nothing is going to happen of any consequence until President-elect Obama is sworn in.
Okay, so let’s look at the first problem. Most people trading the market today have had no experience in a prolonged bear market like the one we had in the ’70s. That bear market was brutal as it did not let anyone out. Over the course of the early ’70s, the bear market basically wore people out to the extent they eventually just threw in the towel. We believe the market is going to make another new low and take out the recent lows that were put in place in early October. Unlike a bull market that constantly needs positive news to drive it higher, a bear market just falls under its own weight.
The second problem we have is that there is no concrete plan in place to rescue the economy. In fact, the domestic and global economic issues are so great that they are overwhelming in scope. The Paulson plan, which is being changed and will continue to change, is a major concern and creates significant uncertainty in the marketplace. Only when we see the new regime take office this coming January will we see any meaningful changes.
The third problem we have is a lame-duck president. This is a major problem for the markets as President-elect Obama can not make any sweeping changes until he is sworn into office. Yes, he may hit the ground running, but the reality is, it’s not for over two months from now and a lot can happen to the market in two months. The key levels that everyone is going to be watching for are the recent lows we saw in early October. If these lows are taken out, and I expect they will be, it’s going to push this market and everything else down to new lows. It will exacerbate the housing situation, the unemployment situation and most of all, the morale of the country.
Having lived through the bear market of the ’70s, I know firsthand how difficult the journey we face is going to be. Now this may seem like a very pessimistic outlook and in some ways it is, however there are always opportunities to make money in the marketplace. These opportunities may not be in stocks, it may be in forex or the commodity markets. Our goal on this blog and with the markets is to point you in the direction of where we believe those opportunities are.
So buckle your seatbelt. I think we are in for a bumpy ride.
Adam Hewison,
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub |
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mokong
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| Subject: Re: US Economy Fri Nov 21, 2008 11:33 pm |
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Dow up 494; Street cheers Obama's Treasury pick
Stocks soar on news the president-elect has tapped the New York Fed's Tim Geithner as Treasury secretary. But big headwinds may weigh on stocks next week. Among the biggest: Citigroup's future after shares fall below $4. Wal-Mart picks a new CEO.
An abrupt rally exploded on Friday, pushing the Dow Jones industrials up 494 points and signaling Wall Street's enthusiasm for President-elect Barack Obama's economic team.
All of the day's gain came in the last 65 minutes of trading after news broke that Obama would nominate Timothy Geithner as Treasury secretary. Geithner is now the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The Dow closed at 8046.42, up 6.5%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 48 points, or 6.3%, to 800, and the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 5.2% to 1,384.
Whether the rally continues next week is a big question. Snap-back rallies in the midst of big sell-offs are typically short-lived. Several important economic reports, particularly existing-homes sales on Monday and new-home sales on Wednesday, are likely to deliver rotten news.
The long Thanksgiving weekend will slow activity substantially. Markets will be closed Thursday, with only a half-day on Friday.
In addition, two big questions hang over the market:
What will happen to Citigroup? Dow component Citigroup's (C, news, msgs) shares fell 60% this week alone and finished Friday down 20% for the day to $3.77. The company's board and federal banking officials held a number of meetings all day about how to stabilize the company before financial markets open Monday.
Can the automakers survive until January? Attempts to win bailout legislation in Congress this week stalled. The question is whether General Motors (GM, news, msgs) and Chrysler will have enough cash to stay alive until a new attempt at legislation can pass.
The Geithner news cheered Wall Street because many traders had concluded, rightly or wrongly, that the Bush administration wasn't prepared to make major decisions after Obama's Nov. 4 election. Geithner would replace Hank Paulson.
Moreover, there was concern that Obama had been too far in the background since the election at a time when severe economic stress requires strong political leadership.
Geithner has worked both for the central bank and the Treasury Department.
He has been deeply involved in the financial crises of the last year. Critics say the government's decisions -- especially the decision to let investment house Lehman Bros. fail on Sept. 15 -- have damaged the economy.
The Dow has fallen nearly 3,900 points since the Lehman failure, and only one stock in the S&P 500 -- wine and chewing tobacco maker UST Inc. (UST, news, msgs) -- can say it had a gain during that period.
Friday's rally took back 57% of the 872 points the market lost on Wednesday and Thursday. The sell-off had pushed the S&P 500 to lows last seen in 1997 and brought the decline in U.S. stocks since their peaks in October 2007 to about 50%.
That's the biggest decline for U.S. stocks overall since it fell about 83% between March 1930 and June 1932.
Despite Friday's rally, the Dow fell 5.3% on the week and is down 39% this year. The S&P 500 was down 8.4% for the week and is down 45.5% this year. The Nasdaq's 8.7% loss brought its loss for the year to 47.8%.
The markets for the week Close for week Wk. ago close % chg. YTD. chg.
Dow Jones industrials
8,046.42
8,497.31
-5.31%
-39.34%
S&P 500
800.03
873.29
-8.39%
-45.52%
Nasdaq Composite
1,384.35
1,516.85
-8.74%
-47.81%
Russell 2000
406.54
456.52
-10.95%
-46.93%
Crude oil per barrel
$49.93
$61.04
-18.20%
-47.98%
10-yr. Treasury yield
3.17%
3.78%
-0.61%
-21.51%
Gold per troy ounce
$793.60
$734.20
8.09%
-5.30%
Source:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/market-dispatches-112108.aspx |
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mokong
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| Subject: Re: US Economy Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:21 am |
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How low can the DOW go?
Make no mistake about it, the market action on Wednesday (November 19th) was extremely negative for all of the indices that we track. The close below 8,000 on the DOW can only be described as negative, indicating further weakness to the downside. I am looking for this index to trade down to around the 6600-6700 level.
Looking at the charts using our “Trade Triangle” technology, it is clear that the Dow has been under pressure since our first major sell signal at 11,290. I see no reason to alter this stand, as I believe the trend will continue to be on the downside. I expect to see further weakness in the weeks and months to come.
What’s an investor to do? As a trader or investor there are three choices you have as an investor:
1. You can go long a market.
2. You can go short a market.
3. You can move into cash.
I’m often amused when I see people buying “defensive stocks.” Why not get out of the market entirely when it’s going down. Doesn’t that make common sense to everyone?
However, most brokers want you to stay in the market at all times fearing that they will miss a bottom. Truth is, most investors (including brokers) missed the top, so what makes anyone so sure that they’ll catch the bottom?
The key in trading is not to get out at the top, or in at the bottom. Anyone who tells you to do that isn’t playing smart in the markets, and most likely claims that they are holding the “holy grail” of trading.
An investor’s goal should be to capture 70% of a move. The middle is the sweet spot, and if you make enough in the middle then who cares about the tops and bottoms. Forget picking up the 15% on the top and 15% on the bottom, it doesn’t work consistently to use it as a trading strategy. |
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mokong
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| Subject: Re: US Economy Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:20 am |
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Does Bank of America Need More Capital?
posted: 32 MINUTES AGO
filed under: BloggingStocks, Financial Crisis, Investing
 AP
Bank of America is raising capital, but its sale
of 5.62 billion shares in China's Construction Bank suggests that it
may be desperate for more cash. BloggingStocks takes a look at BofA's
current situation. Quote: BAC
Full Coverage |
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Admin
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| Subject: Re: US Economy Fri Jan 09, 2009 3:48 am |
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New Lexus Cars Will Talk to Drivers posted: 9 HOURS 8 MINUTES AGOcomments: 13
filed under: Tech News
Toyota is introducing a new technology in its Lexus luxury line that allows the automaker to communicate directly with drivers.
AP Photo/Itsuo Inouye
Visitors look at Lexus models displayed at Toyota Motor Corp.'s showroom in Tokyo.
Full Coverage |
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Admin
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| Subject: Re: US Economy Fri Jan 09, 2009 3:49 am |
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New Lexus Cars Will Talk to Drivers
By CHRIS WOODYARD
,
USA Today
posted: 9 HOURS 12 MINUTES AGO
comments: 13
filed under: Tech News
PrintShare
Text SizeAAA
(Jan.  - For every company that ever dreamed of being able to talk directly to its customers, Toyota has found an answer.
It announced Wednesday that new Lexus vehicles will start being delivered later this year with a system that includes capability for voice messages sent directly from the automaker to its drivers.
Called Lexus Insider, the service will let Lexus send audio messages to participating owners on whatever subject it chooses, from tips on making the best use of the vehicles' features to suggestions for a scenic drive.
Toyota officials promise to be discerning and restrained.
"We're not going to barrage customers with marketing messages," vows Jon Bucci, vice president of Toyota's U.S. advanced technology unit.
Toyota believes the capability, part of a larger package of new electronic features coming to select Lexus vehicles under the name Enform, is a luxury-car first. Spokesmen for its two top import competitors, Mercedes-Benz and BMW, say they don't offer it. BMW has a system that allows drivers to remotely send themselves reminder messages and map routes to their navigation systems.
Cars Americans Love
Honda
17 photos
Previous
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Take a look at the most popular cars, based on J.D. Power and Associate's annual Automotive Performance Execution and Layout survey of new car owners. |
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| Subject: Wall Street stays aloft on bank optimism, Fed Thu Jan 29, 2009 12:42 am |
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Reuters
Wall Street stays aloft on bank optimism, Fed
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks advanced on Wednesday as bank stocks surged on optimism that the Obama administration was accelerating a plan to remove money-losing assets from banks' books in an effort to revive lending.
The market also got some support from the Federal Reserve's statement that the central bank would be prepared to buy long-term government debt if that would help improve conditions in financial markets.
Indexes briefly added to gains following the Fed's policy statement, but the boost was somewhat short-lived as some investors determined that the Fed's comments revealed very little that was new.
"By and large, I don't see a lot in there that wasn't known prior to the report," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. "We realized the Fed was moving toward using long markets as their new fed funds policy tool."
The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) gained +200.72 points, or +2.46 percent, to 8,375.45, after earlier rising as high as 8,405.87. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) climbed 25.84 points, or 3.06 percent, to 871.55. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) shot up 51.10 points, or 3.40 percent, to 1,556.00.
Financial stocks stood out, with JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM - News) among the Dow's top advancers with an 8.7 percent gain to $27.24 and the S&P financial index (^GSPF - News) rising 11.6 percent, on reports that plans were advancing to create a "bad bank" that would mop up assets whose worth has plummeted.
-----------------------------------------------
Energy Rebounds, Metals Lose Luster
Last Update: 28-Jan-09 15:30 ET
Dow +200.72 at 8,375.45, Nasdaq +53.44 at 1,558.34, S&P +28.38 at 874.09
Crude oil futures closed the session 1% higher at $42.16 per barrel. Crude had traded with a loss early in the session. It was down 2.4% at its session low. The rebound in crude prices, along with a positive bias in the broader market, helped push the energy sector higher. Energy stocks actually traded with a loss of 0.4% at their session low, but were recently up 1.2%.
Natural gas contracts for February delivery expired this session. Natural gas closed roughly 0.7% lower at $4.47 per contract. Contracts for March delivery were also hit with selling pressure; they finished nearly 2% lower at $4.44 per contract.
Gold lost roughly 1.26% to close at $890.00 per ounce. Silver, meanwhile, shed 1.8% to finish at $11.96 per ounce. Weaker metals prices are weighing on gold and silver stocks; Newmont Mining (NEM 38.51, -3.20) has fallen nearly 8% this session. |
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picaso
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| Subject: Re: US Economy Sat Sep 05, 2009 6:22 am |
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From Elliott Wave International
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Illusion of Control: The Fed, Stock Market and Economy 9/3/2009 ~Here's a question we often receive at Elliott Wave International's Message Board: "Robert Prechter correctly predicted deflation. But isn't the government in control? The economy is improving, so why can't they do THIS [fill in the blank] to stop deflation altogether?" In our opinion everyone who says that the Fed is in control overlooks one key point: social mood. Here's Bob Prechter's explanation...~Read More |
Do You Want To Master the 'Art' of the Wave Principle? 9/3/2009 Everybody usually finds the idea of the Wave Principle fascinating. People who aren't even in the market find it an interesting concept. But the people who should actually apply it are only the people who want to make the market a large part of their lives. Find out why.Read More |
Forex: Don't Trust Your Trading to Headlines 8/25/2009 "Fundamental" indicators change with the wind because they apply only to what has already happened. It's easy to "explain" past market action -- try predicting it instead. With Elliott wave analysis, you can. As this chart shows, there is a potentially major opportunity developing in the U.S. dollar right now...Read More |
Turn Up The WHEAT: An Opportunity In Grains Awaits 8/13/2009 Yesterday, while carpooling home from the office, I looked up in the sky and imagined a very strange shape in the puffy clouds; namely: A roast pig with an apple in its mouth. My coworker's immediate response to this was: "Did you eat lunch?" What cloud-gazing has to do with the next big move in Wheat -- well, that's the story for today.Read More |
China's Stocks Crash: Is The United States Next? 8/31/2009 In the past three weeks alone, China's formerly sizzling stock market has gone from bull market leader to bear market letdown. On August 30, the Shanghai Composite Index plummeted 6.7%, its largest one-day drop of 2009 so far. And, of the 89 global markets tracked by Bloomberg, the Shanghai index came in last place...Read More |
Deflation: Why Are Central Banks Failing? 8/11/2009 Most conventional economists vigorously dismissed the very idea of deflation just a couple of years ago, but now it' a global reality. Just like the Federal Reserve Bank here in the U.S., overseas central banks have used the "quantitative easing" policy to stop deflation. And just like in the U.S., something is not quite working. Why? Read More |
Get Bob Prechter's 10-Page Market Letter, FREE!
This free issue of Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You'll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future. Learn more. |
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